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    • The $340 Trillion Problem
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      • Paradigm Shift
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      • Imbalances in US Economy
      • Plaza Accord of 1985
      • The REPO Spike
      • The Wealth Gap
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The $340 Trillion Problem

Where should investors allocate capital when bonds have no yield, stocks are disconnected from their intrinsic values, and currencies are at risk from excessive money printing?


"The $340 Trillion Problem" was written to explain our opinion as to a series of anomalies that presented themselves in asset markets since the financial crisis of 2008:  


  1. As debt increases, interest rates decline.  
  2. Governments can print money without causing inflation (Modern Monetary Theory).
  3. Massive budget deficits do not “crowd-out” private spending.
  4. Management teams that efficiently allocate capital under perform profitless “disrupters.”
  5. Revenue growth matters more than profitability. 
  6. Capitalism benefits the top 1% over the other 99%.  
  7. China can finance the building of 100 "ghost cities" the size of San Francisco. 
  8. The unprecedented demand for commodities from China sends commodity prices to 100 year lows vs. financial assets.
  9. US equities trounce international equities, led by strength from the consumer.  
  10. Negative yielding bonds are a “Safe Haven,” precious metals have little value.
  11. Markets are efficient, and there is no place for active investment management.

Wealth Effect - Value of a $1 Annuity

Interest rate have an enormous effect on asset values. Below is the simplest example in finance, the value of a $1 annuity in perpetuity at different interest rate levels:


       10% --> $1/10% = $10

         5% --> $1/5%   = $20

         1% --> $1/1%   = $100

        -1% --> $1/-1%  = Infinite


Question: How can the value of a $1 annuity be infinite? 


Answer: The Price of Money is Wrong.


Negative interest rates are the sign of an extreme market distortion that will eventually adjust. The resultant wealth effect (our annuity example) has substantially driven up asset values and contributed to the "financialization" of the global economy.

Our Solution

Long/Short

Standing Up For the Market Mechanism

Precious Metal Miners

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Long-only gains will be more difficult in future years. Risks are high. In our annuity example, a rise in rates from 1% to 2% sends the value of the annuity down 50%.  That's why each quarter point rate cut has such a material impact on the market right now.  Our strategy is not sector specific. We evaluate each security on its own metrics.

Precious Metal Miners

Standing Up For the Market Mechanism

Precious Metal Miners

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Precious metals miners provide a currency hedge that is critical in today's environment. If inflation starts, then we believe the gold and

 silver price should go up. Today, we can buy gold and silver miners with double digit free cash flow yields at the spot price.


"The most common way people give up their power is by thinking they don't have any" -  Alice Walker - 2004

Standing Up For the Market Mechanism

Standing Up For the Market Mechanism

Standing Up For the Market Mechanism

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Leaders stand up to injustices. While others chase returns, we stand firmly on the side of the market mechanism: basic laws of economics, finance, and math. 


"In the end, we will remember not the words of our enemies, but the silence of our friends" -  Dr. Martin Luther King- 1967

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